MickEdge wrote: ↑27 Jun 2021 16:00
There was an FT article comparing imports and exports to the EU between Jan and Apr, as reported by the UK’s ONS and the EU’s equivalent agency. Curiously, for U.K. exports, the EU figures show a 25% decline from previous years compared to only 5% by the ONS. There seems no satisfactory explanation for such a discrepancy. However, the EU figures do show that many other countries have significantly increased their exports to the EU, in that period, except for the UK and USA. I don’t believe either agency are trying to manipulate the numbers, but they both can’t be right. Of course, we are talking about statistics, so just as I feared, we may never be able to count the real Brexit effect on exports, and I suspect many other things. All very convenient, if you are a politician.
Halligan's current piece in the Torygraph is instructive. Indeed, the numbers tell their own story.
Here are some extracts.
"The UK’s trading relationship with the EU is clearly important – and trade won’t stop, despite the inevitable scratchiness in current relations. Neither side wants that, especially the EU, which continues to run a large surplus with Britain – so a lot more French, German and Spanish jobs and wealth rely on cross-Channel trade than vice versa. The economic case for Brexit was also based on the shifting balance of the world economy. When the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, the bloc accounted for 38pc. That figure is now just 15pc,
despite the EU today comprising far more member states.
"And, of course, we’re set to join the Comprehensive Partnership on Trans-Pacific Partnership – a group of 11 nations around “the Pacific Rim” – including Japan and Canada, as well as Mexico and Peru. CPTPP is a trade agreement between nations accounting for 13pc of global commerce. If Britain joins that would make 16pc – more than the EU27."
In short, the EU was becoming less relevant economically, BEFORE Brexit; a trend that will continue in the years ahead.
Also worth noting is that it isn't out of the question that the United States will eventually join CPTPP too.