EU referendum

[piwacket]

Whilst I feel entirely comfortable that Chris would not intentionally do so, his comment seemed to come across as scoring points from tragedy.

If we cannot talk about things like this without seeming to be "scoring points from tragedy" then we are truly so far into the "those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it" syndrome that we are most probably doomed.

Let's put it down to the weather and lateness of the hour ....

Are you saying Chris that "if you're a member of the club then you've got "protection" That sounds like something the Kray brothers would advocate.... Or there's a burglary in your house, but because you didn't pay your dues to Neighbourhood Watch, no-one will sympathise or help? Hmmm ....

[Mayfield]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-2 ... ction-isis

It is thought the perpetrator in the shopping centre killings had no connection to any terrorist group.

[C8H10N4O2]

The machete attack was also not terrorist related, but followed an argument with a kebab shop worker...

Whist I may agree with some of your points, digi, knee-jerking only aids negativity.
The media are feeding you what to think.

[D6equj5]

DigitalToast

[ReadingBiker]

Yes but you also earlier in the discussion said Germany was giving all refugees citizenship after 2 years so they would be able to come here, yet the guy last night is described as being a failed asylum seeker who appeared to be unhappy at that decision, both can't be true.

I am going to stop being involved in this debate as you seem to have decided that Europe (the continent not the political entity) should refuse entry to all the refugees and assylun seekers from Asia "just in case" which goes against numerous international (not eu) laws and conventions. And I doubt you are going to move from that position and will just continue to spout your xenophobic scare stories

[Mayfield]

Maybe 'its the way you tell it DT '

[MickEdge]

My conscience is quite clear, jonski. And your inclusion of that picture of Angela Merkel, reduces this discussion to the level of the Red Tops. She made the wrong decision about asylum seekers, but for the best humanitarian reasons and she may well play the price at the polls. Some dreadful, dreadful people will have slipped through, but the majority are ordinary families fleeing the terror that infects the Middle East. And remember there is blood on all our hands, with regard to that region. I don't know what she should have done. We elect politicians to become experts, to debate and decide, because most of us aren't experts, or we don't have the time to be. If they don't get it right we sack them and try someone else. That's democracy. What I didn't expect them to do was call a referendum, when most of them knew what the best thing to do was, and then are surprised when their badly informed voters disagree.

[ReadingBiker]

what he said

[Whitespirit]

My conscience is quite clear, jonski. And your inclusion of that picture of Angela Merkel, reduces this discussion to the level of the Red Tops. She made the wrong decision about asylum seekers, but for the best humanitarian reasons and she may well play the price at the polls. Some dreadful, dreadful people will have slipped through, but the majority are ordinary families fleeing the terror that infects the Middle East. And remember there is blood on all our hands, with regard to that region. I don't know what she should have done. We elect politicians to become experts, to debate and decide, because most of us aren't experts, or we don't have the time to be. If they don't get it right we sack them and try someone else. That's democracy. What I didn't expect them to do was call a referendum, when most of them knew what the best thing to do was, and then are surprised when their badly informed voters disagree.

[C8H10N4O2]

[savagethegoat]

excellently put MickEdge

[savagethegoat]

it goes back a lot further than that!

[Whitespirit]

don't know what she should have done. We elect politicians to become experts, to debate and decide, because most of us aren't experts, or we don't have the time to be. If they don't get it right we sack them and try someone else.

I would agree with you if that had been the case but it is actually the case that she was warned very clearly and starkly what the consequences of the open door policy are. She doesn't need to be voted out she needs to be arrested. By the way as far as us all l having blood on our hands with regards to the Middle East I would like to make it quite clear that I did not vote for Labour or any of its wars. Ever. So again in that regard my conscience is clear

The conservative party were totally behind the wars. Did you vote for them? Or did you vote Lib Dem/Green as those were the only English parties I recall opposing the war. Did you applaud when the (so called) Arab Spring took place? Something that has led to the chaos and instability in the Middle East. Did you support Guantanamo Bay, the Abu Ghraib imprisonments after the invasion? It's slightly more nuanced than 'I didnt vote labour so my conscience is clear' I'm afraid.

And lets not forget which countries were backing Saddam Hussein before they decided to oppose him. Were you opposed to SH during the 80's or, like a lot of people I've asked this question of, were you in favour of him? A lot of people were calling me and my friends naive lefties in the 80's because I was one of those demonstrating against SH in Iraq - turned out we were right all along, who'd a thunk it eh? And to say that Merkel needs arresting for attempting to make a compassionate and decent fist out of the disaster that bliar and Bush caused the world says a lot more about you than it says about her quite frankly.

[MickEdge]

it goes back a lot further than that!

You are of course right. I guess you might be thinking centuries. Whilst we can't take responsibility for our ancestors, I do feel uncomfortable about what was done in my country's name. Even though, as far as I know, none of my ancestors took a leading role in any bloody subjugation of another country, but I have got a lot of ancestors!

[Whitespirit]

<snip>

Is that a bit clearer now?

Nope. You didn't answer my questions about whether you voted for a party that supported the wars. You didn't answer my question about whether in the 80's you were one of those who would have called me a stupid lefty for opposing Saddam whilst you, possibly, supported him.

Bear in mind Al Qaeda was a DIRECT result of the 1991 gulf war and it was of course only formed AFTER the US forces remained in Saudi Arabia once Saddam had been defeated. And it was of course founded on the back of US funding to Osama Bin Laden when he was one of the Peshmerga fighting against the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

Now of course if Saddam had not been in power, as we stupid lefties advocated back in those days, there would have been no invasion of Kuwait, no gulf war and no AQ. And you can guess all the other things that almost certainly would not have happened. Like 9/11, like the 2nd Gulf war by bush and bliar, like Abu Ghraib. Which DIRECTLY led to the foundation of IS/Daesh.

Still feeling so clear now are you?

[chris_j_wood]

Is that a bit clearer now?

Not really. You don't offer a shred of evidence that the EU has encouraged immigration on the grounds of "cultural enrichment" or indeed any other grounds. And it certainly isn't anything I've ever heard said by any EU official or MEP.

The open borders you talk about could mean one of two things. You could mean the freedom of EU citizens to obtain work in any EU country. But that freedom doesn't lead to open borders in the sense of no border controls, although it clearly does rather limit the options of immigration officers to turn away people with job offers.

The other thing you could mean is the Schengen Agreement, which does do away with border controls and replaces them with internal identity checks. That is in many ways just common sense if you have long and difficult to police land borders. For Britain and Ireland, with largely sea borders and a cultural aversion to arbitrary identity checks, it made much less sense so we didn't join. Just common sense rather than the rift some would have us believe.

But all of this is utterly irrelevant with regard to France and Germany's current problem. None of the attackers are nationals of other EU nations. Some are born in the France/Germany, others are more recent immigrants from outside the EU. In France's case their presence is largely down to France's colonial history long before the EU came about. In Germany's case down to a mixture of Germany's use of Turkish guest workers to bolster its economy in the 1960s and 70s, and to Merkel's misguided acceptence of so many 'refugees'. All of these are national decisions of no relevance to EU membership.

Of course we have similar issues because of our colonial connections with Pakistan, and it can only be a matter of time before the UK sees another attack. Will you try to blame that on the EU too?.

[chris_j_wood]

OK, I'll try and quickly do the best I can on a tablet from a train, but those snazzy multi-quotes are a nightmare on a tablet so you'll have to figure out who I'm responding to!

Tell me about it. I'm typing this on a phone. People who say that tablets and phones will replace pcs have obviously never tried to do anything more complicated than watch a video.

Borders: I'm not talking so much about Schengen, I'm talking about the fact that once someone has European citizenship, they are pretty much free to move anywhere they want. Shengen or not. Yes, really.

Only if they can get and keep a job. There is no freedom of movement for anything else. Even then states can deny admission on national security grounds. Although they rarely do.

Sure, there is a theoretical risk there. But there are lots of theoretical risks in life; it usually isn't worth getting too wound up about them unless there is some practical indication it is happening.

So if France, or Germany, or the UK was plagued by (eg) Polish or Romanian terrorists, your point would be better taken. But it isn't. The Daesh (commanded or inspired) terrorists attacking France are mostly associated with France; likewise Germany; likewise the UK.

It's not just my thinking, by the way: I just read that the Geman interior minister has called for the swifter expulsion of failed asylum seekers, and that there should be an emergency change of any EU law that doesn't allow it as it's impeding that process. Nothing to do with the EU, eh?

No idea what he is talking about. It sounds to me like it is not just UK politicians who try to blame the EU for their own inadequacies. Think it is just sinking in to our lot that they are going to have to find a new scapegoat. Am I being cynical to suggest that is why all of sudden they are keen on regional devolution again.

Quick question: How much is "enough"? A thousand more deaths? Ten thousand? What's the tipping point for you.

Not sure if this is asked of me or whitespirit?. My answer is that is a good question, to which I'm not sure of the answer. I share your concerns about mass immigration and its potential to conceal, or even breed, terrorism. What I am quite sure of is that it has very little to do with the EU and/or the UK's membership thereof.

Yes there are some theoretical risks that a terrorist could immigrate to (say) Germany, gain citizenship, and then move on to the UK. But that would be neither quick or easy, and Occams Razor suggests that recruiting somebody already here or infiltrating somebody directly would be a better approach. I think we threw away a very valuable baby (our ability to contribute to building a much more secure Europe) with a largely illusory bathwater.

Anyway, travelling again tomorrow so if I don't reply I'm not avoiding replying.

Don't worry about speed of response. This issue ain't going to go away in my life time.

[Pooneil]

Quick question: How much is "enough"?

Another quick question: Of those one million refugees that Germany let in, how many have been charged or implicated in terrorist activities?
Life is about risk. We all face it every day. We don't demand that the government reduces any other crime level to zero. It's about managing and mitigating risk. Yes, we may have welcomed some jackals into our midst, and we certainly seem to have brought in some badly pyschologically damaged young people who have been exploited from afar, but we've undoubtedly saved a lot of good and decent people. Maybe one of them in years to come will be responsible for a major scientific or medical breakthrough. There's certainly a reasonable chance many of them might turn out to be reasonable and productive citizens. At the very least we're giving ourselves the chance to show that we're decent and understanding.
If I'm worried about danger to myself, then there's probably dozens of people already in Reading who pose a greater danger to me (and some of them may have roots here going back centuries). Are we going to be rooting them out too, to eliminate the risk they pose?

[Pooneil]

Saddam: With hindsight (and the knowledge that the leaders would have been privy to at the time), Saddam may have been bad, but his incredibly brutal regime was actually keeping the lid on an ideology far worse. It's like and ecosystem - you think you're killing off a bug, but it turns out to be a predator of something much worse. That's why Europe should stay out of things it doesn't understand.

Happy to concede that, and whilst he was also a sociopathic nutcase, post-Gaddafi Libya doesn't look like much of a success story to write home about either. Of course, the real root of the problem is why Saddam and Gaddafi ever looked like such great leaders to their fellow countrymen in the first place...
And Europe has its own experience of this, although as repressive dictators go, Tito was relatively benevolent and not anywhere near the same league as Saddam or Gaddafi. Indeed keeping the disparate Balkan republics of Yugoslavia together for 35 years, as well as having a very public and poisonous falling out with Stalin and a studied non-alignment thereafter is probably some sort of impressive. Unfortunately there was no one with his authority (for want of a better word) to succeed him (perhaps by his design) - and then we all saw how that went to hell in a bucket not too long afterward.
It's a horrible thing to say, but sometimes it is better the devil you know, even when it really is a devil.

[MickEdge]

Quick question: How much is "enough"?

Another quick question: Of those one million refugees that Germany let in, how many have been charged or implicated in terrorist activities?
Life is about risk. We all face it every day. We don't demand that the government reduces any other crime level to zero. It's about managing and mitigating risk. Yes, we may have welcomed some jackals into our midst, and we certainly seem to have brought in some badly pyschologically damaged young people who have been exploited from afar, but we've undoubtedly saved a lot of good and decent people. Maybe one of them in years to come will be responsible for a major scientific or medical breakthrough. There's certainly a reasonable chance many of them might turn out to be reasonable and productive citizens. At the very least we're giving ourselves the chance to show that we're decent and understanding.
If I'm worried about danger to myself, then there's probably dozens of people already in Reading who pose a greater danger to me (and some of them may have roots here going back centuries). Are we going to be rooting them out too, to eliminate the risk they pose?

I don't think I can really add much to that, Pooneil.

[Whitespirit]

A German-Iranian teenager killed nine people and then shot himself dead at Munich's Olympia shopping centre

Then... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36880606

Police in Munich say they have arrested a 16-year-old Afghan friend of David Ali Sonboly, who killed nine people at a Munich shopping centre on Friday and say he could have been an accomplice.

Except it now turns out that the German, born and raised in Germany despite the attempt to use the phrase German-Iranian to paint him as an islamist, was i fact a neo-nazi extreme right winger who idolised Adolf Hitler.

http://www.alternet.org/grayzone-projec ... self-aryan

Oops, wrong again.

[mikejee]

So perhaps the best way to help prevent outrages would be to expel from the country members of extreme groups such as the BNP and UKIP

[Mayfield]

I think you said it, it's been eight weeks, when it's eight years maybe it will be easier to draw a conclusion....

[chris_j_wood]

I think you said it, it's been eight weeks, when it's eight years maybe it will be easier to draw a conclusion....

Absolutely. I don't know what the authors economic qualifications are, but they really ought not to be making economic judgements on such a short term basis. To be honest I doubt if the real judgement can be made in my lifetime.

But then I was never primarily a remainer because of the economics. I always believed that the EU was necessary in order to tame Europe's mighty propensity to start wars, both by bringing countries together and by deterring external adventurers.

I suppose that now the UK is in the latter category. Besides likely weakening Europe cohesion by our absence, the real danger is that the inexorable logic of national self-interest will mean that the UK will revert to its 19th century default (do everything possible to diminish the influence of France and Germany), and just look where that got us.

[MickEdge]

The Guardians Larry Elliott does make good points about our economy: companies relying on cheap labour rather than looking at ways to increase productivity, and that the shock of Brexit being an opportunity and a catalyst for change. Which is all very well, but for me it doesn't justify walking away from our closest allies and trading partners. It's a question of trust, which they probably won't have for us for many years. And that can't be good for business or peace.

If as he says the EU is a failed project, then we should be there fixing it, not trying to completely destroy it. We are after all the second largest economy. We must have some clout. Admittedly a lot depends on our leadership, which I have to hope has improved since the previous tenant of no. 10. The EU may have many problems, but failed, I think not. I would be interested to hear his definition of failure. It's quite an emotive statement to make and for me one that weakens his argument. Probably, the only real area of failure is Greece, which is more about the Euro than the EU. But that's another story, for another day. Haven't heard much about Greece recently. Are they still paying their bills.

[chris_j_wood]

Sometimes I really miss not having a like button on the forum. So this will have to do.

[MickEdge]

Just found this, whilst reading an article about Sir Athony Jay, who died recently. It will now be his and Jonathan Lynn's last "Yes minister" script. Written in early August, on Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radi ... r-humphrey
Hope you enjoy as much as I did.

[MickEdge]

Because we didn't fall off the economic cliff, although the currency certainly took a nasty tumble and hasn't recovered, it doesn't follow that leaving the EU is a good idea. It's worth remembering that our GDP per person has grown faster than the average of Italy, Germany and France in the 43 years since joining the EU, and they are the EU's three largest economies. For those who say, well it would have grown even more if we hadn't joined, a study comparing our growth with that of countries in a similar position to us, showed that the UK has seen higher growth. I don't know about you, but when I'm looking for an investment, I feel much more comfortable with one that has shown sustained growth over many years. If the referendum campaign was financial advice, then deciding the future welfare of 60+ million people, based on the scare tactics used by both sides, would have been a scandal far greater than anything seen in financial services. Sadly, there was no 14 day cooling off period. We'll never really know if we would have been better staying in. Whatever better means. However, I am more optimistic as time goes by, but it's going to be long haul and I just hope we have people capable of the task.

[ReadingBiker]

please do also bear in mind context when quoting stats - I am not saying Brexit is good / bad or indifferent - just quoting numbers without context is very bad and what everyone was accusing both sides of int he run up to the referendum.

For instance

UK industrial output grew at its fastest rate for 17 years in April to June, according to the ONS - remember we are currently selling things overseas at the current exchange rate made form raw materials bought at the old exchange rate - prices will rise when the raw material prices rise

The UK's construction industry seems to have recovered in August from a downturn that started just before June's Brexit vote. The latest Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.2 from 45.9 in July - 50 means standing still - all this means is it is less bad than it was, anything under 50 is still contraction - please read here the source of the index http://www.cips.org/en/supply-managemen ... ive-years/ The index recorded 49.2 in August, compared to July’s seven-year low of 45.9, against the no-change reading of 50. Values above 50 indicate growth and those below show contraction.

[dave m]

To be fair-

I am not sure that "immediate" was the term used.

and we haven't had Brexit yet. All we have had was a vote.

[C8H10N4O2]

Uh-huh.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37359196

[savagethegoat]

Yeah, I read and understand all of what you're saying, but the underlying fact remains that the predictions were wildly inaccurate.

Two more items since I posted this morning:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-37256694

Pound rises after services rebound

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37274279 (sightly duplicates what's already been touched on).

The UK's services industry rebounded strongly in August, suggesting the country will "avoid recession", according to a closely-watched survey.

The fact is, we were promised instant recession, rocketing fuel prices and WWIII within days of voting for Brexit, and the fact is NONE of what was predicted has happened. If I had £1 (or €!) for everytime I've heard the phrase "confounded predictions made by economists/MPs/chancellor/bank of England" in the last few weeks, I'd be a wealthy man by now (in any currency!)

a rate of 1.17 is hardly anything to be shouting about!

[MickEdge]

Uh-huh.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37359196

Just another reason why we should have stayed in, to stop such nonsense. Politicians love power and what cements power better than a military force, which eventually gets used. Or am I just getting too carried away? Strong trade links and free movement across borders is in my opinion, a much better way to secure peace. And after all, nearly all EU countries belong to NATO, anyway.

[Whitespirit]

Did anyone, other than those who voted leave, not know this walking shitstain on the world was lying when he campaigned for leave. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09 ... johnson-a/

[C8H10N4O2]

Did anyone, other than those who voted leave, not know this walking shitstain on the world was lying when he campaigned for leave. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09 ... johnson-a/

Yes.
Everyone probably, WS.
...well, maybe not "everyone" as an absolute contention.

I appreciate Remain would like to think numbskulls voted for Leave, conned in their droves perhaps, my some maniacal, self-serving, "icon".
And we could argue interminably whether Leavers are all racists, or Remainers are zombies for dictatorial rule.
Neither is, again, absolutely true....and "no smoke without fire" is forever just a tool of desperation.
A tool continually used in the Labour v Tory argument, and in which parallels are clearly apparent, it's worth observing.

Ultimately, its' irrelevant...the vote is done, there's no Mulligan available, and Forward is, as always, only a Negative when Change is a personal obstacle.
The question no-one can answer is whether this is, indeed, Forward.

No-one (I think I can be confident in that assertion) is not anticipating some negatives when Brexit actually kicks in.
But neither "side" has anything beyond speculation as to how any of those will become manifest, indeed, if at all.

Those are (as I see it) are the only facts available.

Opinion-wise, which has been the true Brexit vote-driver, EU is a failure outside collaborative venture, where it has, genuinely, mostly excelled...albeit it very expensively.
Its ability to contribute to local social needs has been exemplary, for example...albeit it very expensively.
There are, and laudably, many communities benefiting, no-one can ever take that away.

But when you try to put a leash on trade and business, dictating If and How (Friendly) nations can trade, and enforcing fiscal levies that support promoting political ambition rather than "oiling everyone's wheels", alarm bells must ring...in exactly the same way that USA is reeling, still dumbfounded even, at the Pentagon's inexplicable "loss" of $6 Trillion.

Recent announcements from Brussels of intentions to form some militaristic edict should also ring bells....loud ones, with flashing "panic" lights, ideally.

Opinions are a dime a dozen, mine tonight no less so measured amongst the masses.
Like much else in political manoeuvring outside our ken.

"We're all in it Together"".
Well, that is, at least, completely accurate, a novelty in Party marketing soundbites, for sure.
What a shame it is not equally unusually devoid of communicated Promise acted upon.